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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. Under an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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