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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.