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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."